Threat Analysis and Security Situation report:


posted as received

The ultimate diplomatic and Geo-political nightmare is now unfolding
in Pakistan. Just as they did in Libya, UN is now getting involved in
Baluchistan over human rights issue and a case is being built against
Pakistan for a UN intervention in Baluchistan.

No one in the government is owning the “invitation” to the UN team.
No one knows who has authorized it or under which mandate this is
being done. There is a total conspiracy of silence in the government,
media and the judiciary. The secrecy to the entire mission is itself
sinister. There are vices being raised in the parliament but just for
the gallery.

The UN is now well and truly poised to build a case for a
direct military intervention into Baluchistan. Once the case gets the
UN sanction, NATO would start to roll in from Afghanistan to cut a
corridor to Gawader through the province of Baluchistan. Welcome to
the invasion of Pakistan under Af-Pak!

The stage for an invasion is being set step by step. The sequence is
as following:

1.Sub-nationalists and insurgents like BLA backed by CIA and RAW wage
a war against the state and force thousands of youth and tribals to
migrate to Afghanistan or join the insurgency. Baluchistan is turned
into a death zone for all those patriots who protect and defend

2.Media creates a hype about the “missing persons” creating a global
outcry based on totally false, fabricated and propaganda stories to
malign the security forces and national secret services.

3.Supreme Court CJ takes notice and either naively or deliberately
plays into the hands of the enemies and separatists. For example, the
grandson of Akbar Bugti, Brahmdagh Bugti is based in Switzerland and
is waging the military campaign against the state while the son of
Akbar Bugti is filing cases in the courts against army and the state
for “missing persons”. It is incredible that it is  all in the
“family” for the insurgents.

4.CJ starts his bashing of the ISI, FC and army, even registering
cases against the security forces instead of the terrorists and the
insurgents. In the Akbar Bugti’s death case, where no inquiry and
investigation has ever been done, CJ even becomes a party and called
it a “murder” and the biggest political blunder of Pakistan’s

5.Due to the aggressive attitude of CJ against the army and the FC,
security forces went on the defensive, even withdrawing from the basic
security operations allowing a free field to the terrorists.

6.On the other hand, government and the judiciary started to withdraw
the cases against the BLA, insurgents and terrorists for hundreds of
acts of war, sabotage, assassinations, kidnappings and destruction of
state power and gas infrastructure. Withdrawing of cases against the
insurgents without any concession from the terrorists is a deliberate
betrayal of the nation and the state and amounts to treason.

7.Moved by the “direct interest” of the CJ, UN decides to move in for
a fact finding mission.

8.The separatists meet the UN mission and demand a UN intervention.
Next steps would be:

1.UN mission would go back and write a damning report against Pakistan
and Pak army.

2.Global media and India would pick up the report to build an
international case on Baluchistan.

3.Pakistan media would also join the Indian and western media to bring
more pressure on Pak army and ISI and would demand withdrawing the
army and the FC from the province, giving a free hand to the
insurgents and the foreign intervention forces.

4.UN would take up the case and a debate would be initiated in the
General assembly or in the Security Council on Baluchistan’s “grave”
HR violations by Pakistan. A UN mandate would be created for
aggressive involvement and to increase the pressure on Pakistan.

5.In the next 3 months, the entire NATO military hardware for the
invasion would pass through Pakistan, bolstering the US force presence
in Afghanistan, ready for rolling into Baluchistan under the UN

6.By December, Pakistan would be in total and complete anarchy and the
government would be busy in elections with total collapse of civil
governance and and economic axis, a civil war situation would be ripe
in the country. The TTP insurgents based in Afghanistan would launch
more aggressive attacks on Pak army to draw Pak army away from
Baluchistan. Indians would also make aggressive moves and postures in
Kashmir and on the eastern borders of Pakistan to keep Pak forces
focused on East and against insurgents in FATA.

7.The prize would be to cut a strategic corridor through Gawader to
Chaman for NATO. An amphibious landing on Gawader is the target.

8.The final phase of Af-Pak, 4thGW and Cold start would be launched.
Invasion, occupation, war, anarchy and dismemberment.
We expect this to unfold in the next 3 to 4 months. From Somalia to
Syria to Iraq to Yugoslavia – the war would head towards its logical
end unless stopped now by Pak army, else the bitter end is a foregone


Within the country, it is total chaos, death, floods and corruption as
the government remains at war with the judiciary and the country has
literally gone to dogs on all axis. The internal implosion is now
bringing down the entire edifice of the state and the country. Rampant
corruption, lawlessness and complete meltdown of social and civic
services are now drawing blood staggeringly on daily basis. The anger
and rage in the people is spilling in every direction.

When future history will be written, the historians would be at a
total loss to find out the reason for the deafening silence and
inexplicable inaction of the Army chief when the country was being
sunk so rapidly on all axis. The situation can still be recovered but
now it needs a military coup to clean up the mess and recover the nose
dive to death. Every passing day is a day lost in recovery and is
increasing the cost of salvage which is getting higher and higher in

A firm physical, ideological, spiritual and intellectual rebellion
against the system is now a national, religious and moral duty of
every patriot! We have been betrayed. Now very soon, we will be tested
as well..


Axis of Evil

TEHRAN (FNA)- Turkey’s national air carrier, Turkish Air, has been transiting Al-Qaeda and Taliban militants from North Waziristan in Pakistan to the Turkish borders with Syria, sources revealed on Saturday, mentioning that the last group were flown to Hatay on a Turkish Air Airbus flight No. 709 on September 10, 2012.


"The Turkish intelligence agency sent 93 Al-Qaeda and Taliban terrorists from Waziristan to Hatay province near the border with Syria on a Turkish Air Airbus flight No. 709 on September 10, 2012 and via the Karachi-Istanbul flight route," the source told FNA on Saturday, adding that the flight had a short stop in Istanbul. 
The 93 terrorists transited to the Turkish border with Syria included Al-Qaeda militants from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Yemen, Pakistan, Afghanistan and a group of Arabs residing in Waziristan, he added. 
The source, who asked to remain anonymous due to the sensitivity of his information, further revealed that the Turkish intelligence agency is coordinating its measures with the CIA and the Saudi and Qatari secret services.

FNA dispatches from Pakistan said new al-Qaeda members were trained in North Waziristan until a few days ago and then sent to Syria, but now they are transferring their command center to the borders between Turkey and Syria as a first step to be followed by a last move directly into the restive parts of Syria on the other side of the border. 
The al-Qaeda, backed by Turkey, the US and its regional Arab allies, had set up a new camp in Northern Waziristan in Pakistan to train Salafi and Jihadi terrorists and dispatched them to Syria via Turkish borders. 

"A new Al-Qaeda has been created in the region through the financial and logistical backup of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and a number of western states, specially the US," a source told FNA earlier this month.

Ali Mahdian told FNA that the US and the British governments have been playing with the al-Qaeda through their Arab proxy regimes in the region in a bid to materialize their goals, specially in Syria. 
He said the Saudi and Qatari regimes serve as interlocutors to facilitate the CIA and MI6 plans in Syria through instigating terrorist operations by Salafi and Arab Jihadi groups, adding that the terrorists do not know that they actually exercise the US plans.

"Turkey has also been misusing extremist Salafis and Al-Qaeda terrorists to intensify the crisis in Syria and it has recently augmented its efforts in this regard by helping the new Al-Qaeda branch set up a camp in Northern Waziristan in Pakistan to train Al-Qaeda and Taliban members as well as Turkish Salafis and Arab Jihadis who are later sent to Syria for terrorist operations," said the source. 
He said the camp in Waziristan is not just a training center, but a command center for terrorist operations against Syria. 
Yet, the source said the US and Britain are looking at the new Al-Qaeda force as an instrument to attain their goals and do not intend to support them to ascend to power, "because if Salafi elements in Syria ascend to power, they will create many problems for the US, the Western states and Turkey in future".

"Thus, the US, Britain and Turkey are looking at the Al-Qaeda as a tactical instrument," he said, and warned of the regional and global repercussions of the US and Turkish aid to the Al-Qaeda and Salafi groups. 
"Unfortunately, these group of countries have just focused on the short-term benefits that the Salafis and the Al-Qaeda can provide for them and ignore the perils of this support in the long run," he said. 

"At present, the western countries, specially Britain which hosts and controls the Jihadi Salafi groups throughout the world are paving the ground for these extremists to leave their homes – mostly in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the Untied Arab Emirates (UAE) as well as those who live in Europe and the US – for Waziristan," the source added. 
In relevant remarks, Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halqi last week blamed certain states, the Salafis and the Al-Qaeda for terrorist operations which have claimed the lives of thousands of people in his country, and said terrorist groups supported by certain foreign actors are misusing differences in his country to bring Syria into turmoil.

Addressing the 16th heads-of-state summit of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) here in Tehran on Thursday, the Syrian premier noted terrorist attacks on his nation, and said the "terrorists are backed up by certain foreign states". 
"Many countries allege to be supporting peaceful solutions in Syria, but they oppose Annan’s plan in practice," he said, and cautioned, "The responsibility for the failure of this plan lies on their shoulder as they strove to keep the Syrian crisis going and falsified events."

"The world should know that the Syrian crisis, in fact, rises from foreign meddling. Certain well-known countries from inside and outside the region are seeking instability of Syria," the Syrian prime minister complained. 
Elaborating on the recent developments in Syria, al-Halqi said, "It has been proved that foreign-backed terrorist groups have been misusing events and killing the innocent people."

"These terrorists include Salafis and Al-Qaeda Takfiri groups," he reiterated, and added, "Those states that support terrorism and oppose talks should be given moral and economic punishments as they are part of the problem in Syria." 
Syria has been experiencing unrest since March 2011 with organized attacks by well-armed gangs against Syrian police forces and border guards being reported across the country. 

In October, calm was eventually restored in the Arab state after President Assad started a reform initiative in the country, but Israel, the US and its Arab allies are seeking hard to bring the country into chaos through any possible means. Tel Aviv, Washington and some Arab capitals have been staging various plots in the hope of stirring unrests in Syria once again. 
The US and its western and regional allies have long sought to topple Bashar al-Assad and his ruling system. Media reports said that the Syrian rebels and terrorist groups have received significantly more and better weapons in recent weeks, a crime paid for by the Persian Gulf Arab states and coordinated by the United States.

The US daily, Washington Post, reported in May that the Syrian rebels and terrorist groups battling the President Bashar al-Assad’s government have received significantly more and better weapons in recent weeks, a crime paid for by the Persian Gulf Arab states and coordinated by the United States. 
The newspaper, quoting opposition activists and US and foreign officials, reported that Obama administration officials emphasized the administration has expanded contacts with opposition military forces to provide the Persian Gulf nations with assessments of rebel credibility and command-and-control infrastructure.

Opposition activists who several months ago said the rebels were running out of ammunition said in May that the flow of weapons – most bought on the black market in neighboring countries or from elements of the Syrian military in the past – has significantly increased after a decision by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Persian Gulf states to provide millions of dollars in funding each month.

Asif Zardari (AZ) Reveals CIA Plan for Pakistan

Asif Zardari (AZ) Reveals CIA Plan for Pakistan

by Usman Khalid, Rifah Party of Pakistan

AUGUST 7, 2012 

Press Release

Asif Zardari (AZ) Reveals CIA Plan for Pakistan

The secret weapon of Indo-Zionists is Imran Khan’s whose arrogance and campaign of slander against Nawaz Sharif (NS) splits the majority that is anti-AZ

London August 7, 2012. In a speech in Khairpur on 28 July, President Asif Zardari said he is the ‘spiritual son’ of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto (ZAB) and like ZAB and BB, he had his eyes on the forces of history in the region and the world and that he was confident of victory in all the provinces of Pakistan including the Punjab. The press dismissed his speech as “effort to resurrect the confidence of the demoralised but loyal constituency of the PPP”. That is true but the speech was much more than that. It gave an idea that he indeed has a ‘vision’ and how it fits into the plans of regional hegemon (India) and global hegemon (USA).


Asif Zardari being taken to prison in handcuffs – that may be repeated if he ‘succeeds’

To understand the politics of Asif Zardari, one has to keep in mind that:

1) he belongs to the Shia fraternity,

2) the Shia are a minority in Pakistan,

3) the only Shia state – Iran – is anti USA,

4) the leadership of the Karachi based MQM also belongs to the Shia fraternity. These are the four ‘given’ on which the CIA plan to ‘control’ Pakistan is based.

The USA and the World was surprised by the quick and easy ouster President Bin Ali of Tunisia.

The CIA has quickly evolved plans to impose pro-US leadership in every Muslim country albeit with ‘democratic’ credentials. In Egypt, Libya and Syria the Western objective has been to set up weak governments exploiting the dynamics of the Arab Spring i.e. yearning for democracy. In the rest of the Middle East, the same objective is being achieved by exploiting sectarian polarisation. The prime targets of the USA in the Middle East are non-Sunni states, Iran and Syria, which has driven the Sunni Arab rulers closer to the USA.

The failure to set up Iraq as a Shia majority pro-US ‘democratic’ state has been a big set back for the US. It has led to the US turning against the Shia after decades of considering them their ‘natural ally’ in the Muslim World. The fall of the Shanishah of Iran was considered to be a temporary set back; the US bent over backwards to cultivate the Ayatollahs of Iran but it did not work as the new leadership in Iran relied on hostility of the US to establish the Islamic Republic as the regional leader.

But India was successful in cultivating the Islamic Republic against ostensibly pro US Pakistan. The failure in Iran and stalemate in Syria calls for a new strategy. A new model is being evolved in Pakistan on the lines of “minority rule” like Zionist rule in the USA and high caste rule in India.

The MQM is the minority – protégés loyal to the USA and India – which are the likes of the Brahmin in India and the Zionists (majority of who are Christians) of the USA. Like the Zionists and Brahmins, they now seek to present a face of ‘super-patriots’.

Asif Zardari might believe that his politics is the same as that of ZAB and BB but that is not true. ZAB thought that the socialist camp was on the rise and it was time for Pakistan to dump the USA and embrace the Socialists in the Muslim as well as the wider world. He was right to the extent that China has risen far and fast and Pakistan was right in steadfastly maintaining close and warm relations with China. But he was wrong elsewhere. It was Saudi Arabia, not Egypt, which drew closer to Pakistan, which paid a heavy price for total dependence on the West in the Cold War.

The erstwhile Soviet Union gave overt support to the secession of East Pakistan and support for self-determination in Jammu and Kashmir eroded. BB judged that her father had invited the wrath of the USA by seeking nuclear parity with India. She bent over backwards to accommodate the US as well as Indian interests in the region but could not get the political support of Indo-US protégés – ANP and the MQM. But she earned the hostility of all patriotic elements – the military as well as the Mujahideen – in Afghanistan and Kashmir.

Asif Zardari has succeeded where BB failed. He is committed to Indo-US interests and has been rewarded by loyal support of the ANP as well the MQM. This support has been partly delivered by his own credentials (his late father was the President of ANP in Sindh), and partly by working closely with the CIA and MI6 – directly and through Rehman Malik and Altaf Hussain. All his political moves have been carefully choreographed by the CIA.

Those who do not take his confidence to win the next elections with a thumping majority seriously are mistaken. As things stand today, the CIA is reading of the situation in Pakistan is fairly accurately. It thinks that the ruling coalition in Pakistan would stay solid while the TIP led by Imran Khan continues to prevent the consolidation of the patriotic right which still commands majority support in Pakistan. They believe that TIP would act as a US ally as the Jamaat i Islami did against ZAB and the Ikhwan of Egypt were used against the populist rule of President Nasser in Egypt. But the character of Imran Khan is more similar to that Saddam Hussain who was the ‘useful idiot’ whose every move served the US purpose.

He first embarked on a path of ‘secular socialism’ and alliance with USSR under the flag of Baath Party. Then he consolidated the Sunni minority to consolidate his hold on power. This was used by the CIA to get him to invade Islamic Republic of Iran. Then he fell into another trap and invaded Kuwait, which resulted in a crushing defeat for Saddam Hussain. A change in Government – formation of a national coalition government – could have saved Iraq but Saddam Hussain was more focussed on retaining hold on power. The CIA infiltrated Saddam’s armed forces and had links with Shia opposition also. The situation is Pakistan is similar but it is not the same.

The ruling coalition in Pakistan is an arrangement sponsored by the CIA but it is discredited and unpopular. But the imponderables are plentiful. The ANP and MQM will continue support to AZ endure as long as the PPP can retain its vote bank. The rebellion of Zulfiqar Mirza in protest against AZ alliance with the MQM and Mumtaz Bhutto joining the PML (N) has changed the political landscape in Sindh. In time, the loyalists of ZAB may abandon AZ and join Mumtaz Bhutto. Zulfiqar Mirza joining Mumtaz Bhutto can cause the political earthquake that the PPP and its foreign patrons fear most.

The constituency of TIP comprises patriots. Imran Khan is too arrogant to admit that he is dividing the patriotic constituency to give AZ the chance of victory he predicts. But stalwarts in Imran Khan’s TIP would have to force him change course. Imran is too arrogant to do that; he may choose to resign instead. The third patriotic group is represented by Defa i Pakistan (DOP) Council. This is not a political party as such but it has a huge constituency – opponents of regional hegemony of India. PML(N) and its allies could get two third majority in the next elections if the DOP gives it support and PML(N) embraces its one point agenda.

The CIA plan for Pakistan has been revealed by AZ. It wants AZ supported by ANP and MQM to retain power in Pakistan at the next elections. Pakistan is to be a new model in Muslim countries – ruled by ethnic minorities, chaos in the name of democracy, loot and plunder in the name of politics, and reviling the armed forces as threat to democracy. But the USA is not stopping drone attacks on Pakistan and India is not stopping the building of dams on our rivers in Kashmir.

The patriotic parties have to be particularly inept to lose the next elections. Imran Khan may continue to attack the PML(N) to split his own constituency and deliver victory as AZ hopes. But the CIA alone is the custodian of the complete narrative. In the event of victory by PML(N) and its allies, the defeated forces may invite intervention by the USA and/or India. That is not very likely. But it would become even less likely if we knew and prepared for the worst.

Noxious conceit


by Babar Sattar
Saturday, September 15, 2012


Legal eye

The writer is a lawyer based in Islamabad.

General Kayani’s decision to have the generals involved in the NLC scam court-martialed, shielding them from ordinary criminal investigation and accountability, projects the army as an ‘extractive’ status-quo institution choking equality, accountability, rule of law and progressive change.

The exact details of the NLC affair are still shrouded in mystery. But here is what is known: the generals in question splurged and squandered public funds belonging to the NLC. Despite boldly and arduously pursuing the matter, the Parliamentary Accounts Committee under Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan failed to procure the record of the NLC scam. (Might this be one of the reasons the opposition leader surrendered the PAC chair?) With the mantle of PAC passing to the intrepid Nadeem Afzal Chan, the emphasis on holding the khakis to account has not changed, but neither has the outcome.

Reports suggest that the army has also refused to hand over NLC scam records to NAB. The alleged crookedness and profiteering by the khakis at the expense of tax-payers is apparently of such crucial relevance for our national security that the army chief had to personally meet the NAB chairman multiple times to negotiate the details of how to proceed against the generals.

The point here is not to conduct a media trial of the generals involved in the NLC scam and paint them guilty. The benefit of doubt – innocent until proven guilty – must go to all accused and these generals are no exception. In question are the choices made by the army high command that seem to sabotage due process of law and ensure preferential treatment for fellow khakis, and the mindset and conceptions of institutional interest that inform such bum choices.

The objections are two-fold: the timing of this decision and the refusal to share the NLC scam record with civilian authorities. The scandal relates to the period from 2004-08. It came to the fore in February 2009. Why is it that the army chief finally woke up to order a court martial after a gap of two and a half years – in September 2012? Is it because the cat is unfortunately out of the bag and refuses to shut up despite being cajoled and coerced?

And what is so unfathomable about sharing the record of possible impropriety involving ex-khakis with civilian institutions? Under the Manual of Pakistan Military Law, the army chief can refuse to share the findings of a court of inquiry if it involves matters prejudicial to the security of the state. But does a graft scandal become a matter of national security if khakis are caught with their hands in the cookie jar?

The concept of individual and institutional accountability of khakis seems to have taken a backseat under the present regime. We saw a special inquiry clearing the name of the lone general implicated in the Benazir Bhutto murder case. No one of any significance was held to account for the security failure that resulted in the GHQ attack or the intelligence failure in the OBL matter. In the NLC case if the court of inquiry has been ordered after two and a half years, recording the summary of evidence could itself take till eternity, with the matter of framing charges and holding the court martial still remaining. What is that we are witnessing here – grudging accountability or a simple cover-up?

Stories from childhood leave an impression on you. A family friend – a retired colonel – regaled us with his hunting stories when we were kids when he visited our home frequently (during a brief period) in relation to a legal matter my father was helping him with. One of his stories has stayed with me. As commanding officer (CO) of his unit, a soldier came up to the colonel and narrated how a rival group within his village had killed his kin and that he needed leave to go back and take revenge. The Col. refused the leave and discouraged the soldier. A week or so later the police came looking for the soldier and informed the colonel that he had been named in the murder of two men in his native village who were killed a few days back in the middle of the night.

The Col. said he knew in his heart that the soldier had committed the murders and that, despite not being granted the leave, he had slipped away during the night. The Col then told us with swagger and pride that he would not surrender one of his men to the police and so he showed the police some duty/attendance register establishing that the soldier was on duty within the unit on the night of the incident and couldn’t thus be involved in murder. In other words he abetted the crime, provided an alibi and helped the soldier get away with murder. Suspicious of memory, I began narrating this story to a close friend, a serving fauji. He delivered the punch line just as I started out and told me that this is a fable that nostalgic COs narrate to celebrate their bravado and leadership.

How can a national army allow the nurturing of a mindset that lionises a fictional story of an officer helping a subordinate get away with the murder of a fellow citizen and project it as a mark of leadership or loyalty? For too long have we tolerated and nurtured us-vs-them distinctions between Pakistanis. Today we are witnessing brutality celebrated in the name of these distinctions, and people being killed, maimed and persecuted in the name of honour, morality and religion. Are bigoted conceptions of esprit de corps and an institutional sense of entitlement – of being above the law – any different from other forms of bigotry that haunt us? Will accountability of generals strengthen or undermine our national security?

In Why Nations Fail, the authors (Acemoglu and Robinson) trace the history of evolution of political and economic institutions around the globe and argue that nations are not destined to succeed or fail due to geography or culture but because of the emergence of extractive or inclusive institutions within them. If one revisits the role of our military in politics and its continuing economic activities, one finds uncanny similarities with the defined attributes of an extractive institution:

“Extractive political institutions concentrate power in the hands of a narrow elite and place few constraints on the exercise of this power. Economic institutions are then often structured by this elite to extract resources from the rest of the society. Extractive economic institutions thus naturally accompany extractive political institutions. In fact, they must inherently depend on extractive political institutions for their survival. This synergistic relationship between extractive economic and political institutions introduces a strong feedback loop: political institutions enable elites controlling political power to choose economic institutions with few constraints of opposing forces. They also enable the elites to structure future political institutions and their evolution.”

Speak with any member of our ruling elite and s/he will agree that Pakistan is going down fast. And yet, whether it is the generals, politicos, judges or bureaucrats, in an institutional sense, one finds them committed to the same set of values and interests that have produced this sorry state. Is this narrow self-serving conduct really sustainable?

The NLC scam and the conceit evident therein is only the symptom of a much deeper-rooted problem. General Kayani has a choice. He can keep making feel-good speeches such as the recent one at PMA, stating that all national institutions are responsible for leading the country astray and they must all make amends. Or he can put his money where his mouth is and use his last year of service constructively by taking bold steps to transform the “extractive” institution he heads into an “inclusive” one capable of lending earnest support to democracy and rule of law

Noam Chomsky: Why America and Israel Are the Greatest Threats to Peace


Imagine if Iran — or any other country — did a fraction of what American and Israel do at will.

September 3, 2012  | 


It is not easy to escape from one’s skin, to see the world differently from the way it is presented to us day after day. But it is useful to try. Let’s take a few examples.

The war drums are beating ever more loudly over Iran. Imagine the situation to be reversed.

Iran is carrying out a murderous and destructive low-level war against Israel with great-power participation. Its leaders announce that negotiations are going nowhere. Israel refuses to sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty and allow inspections, as Iran has done. Israel continues to defy the overwhelming international call for a nuclear-weapons-free zone in the region. Throughout, Iran enjoys the support of its superpower patron.

Iranian leaders are therefore announcing their intention to bomb Israel, and prominent Iranian military analysts report that the attack may happen before the U.S. elections.

Iran can use its powerful air force and new submarines sent by Germany, armed with nuclear missiles and stationed off the coast of Israel. Whatever the timetable, Iran is counting on its superpower backer to join if not lead the assault. U.S. defense secretary Leon Panetta says that while we do not favor such an attack, as a sovereign country Iran will act in its best interests.

All unimaginable, of course, though it is actually happening, with the cast of characters reversed. True, analogies are never exact, and this one is unfair – to Iran.

Like its patron, Israel resorts to violence at will. It persists in illegal settlement in occupied territory, some annexed, all in brazen defiance of international law and the U.N. Security Council. It has repeatedly carried out brutal attacks against Lebanon and the imprisoned people of Gaza, killing tens of thousands without credible pretext.

Thirty years ago Israel destroyed an Iraqi nuclear reactor, an act that has recently been praised, avoiding the strong evidence, even from U.S. intelligence, that the bombing did not end Saddam Hussein’s nuclear weapons program but rather initiated it. Bombing of Iran might have the same effect.

Iran too has carried out aggression – but during the past several hundred years, only under the U.S.-backed regime of the shah, when it conquered Arab islands in the Persian Gulf.

Iran engaged in nuclear development programs under the shah, with the strong support of official Washington. The Iranian government is brutal and repressive, as are Washington’s allies in the region. The most important ally, Saudi Arabia, is the most extreme Islamic fundamentalist regime, and spends enormous funds spreading its radical Wahhabist doctrines elsewhere. The gulf dictatorships, also favored U.S. allies, have harshly repressed any popular effort to join the Arab Spring.

The Nonaligned Movement – the governments of most of the world’s population – is now meeting in Teheran. The group has vigorously endorsed Iran’s right to enrich uranium, and some members – India, for example – adhere to the harsh U.S. sanctions program only partially and reluctantly.

The NAM delegates doubtless recognize the threat that dominates discussion in the West, lucidly articulated by Gen. Lee Butler, former head of the U.S. Strategic Command: “It is dangerous in the extreme that in the cauldron of animosities that we call the Middle East,” one nation should arm itself with nuclear weapons, which “inspires other nations to do so.”

Butler is not referring to Iran, but to Israel, which is regarded in the Arab countries and in Europe as posing the greatest threat to peace In the Arab world, the United States is ranked second as a threat, while Iran, though disliked, is far less feared. Indeed in many polls majorities hold that the region would be more secure if Iran had nuclear weapons to balance the threats they perceive.

Threat analysis and Situation report

By Syed Zaid Zaman Hamid

BrassTacks Threat analysis and Situation report which the treacherous media, idiotic politicians and the naive judiciary will NOT tell you:
Whatever we wrote in the last few weeks is rapidly being unfolded on all threat axis for Pakistan.

The US is now well and truly aggressive to provoke more wars within Pakistan and to force the Pak army to into a head-on collision with the tribes in North Waziristan and against Afghan resistance. The panic has already started to set in the tribes who are pondering over mass migration and exodus from the region, even towards Afghanistan where these Pakistani tribals would be easy prey for NATO and Indian military psy-ops operators to ignite their anger into rage against Pakistan and Pak army. On the other hand, NATO is literally raining missiles in North Waziristan against pro-Pakistan tribals and against Afghan resistance.

The Drone warfare is now creating a major crisis for Pakistan army as the military leadership is coming under severe pressure and criticism from the nation over their failure to stop this blatant abuse of national dignity and slaughter of innocent citizens.

“The strategy deployed by NATO/CIA/RAW is:

1. To attack and destroy Pakistan’s surveillance and early warning systems of the Navy, PAF and army to incapacitate their military capability to forewarn of any invasion on the country.

2. The second axis is to ignite the sectarian wars in Pakistan, just as in Syria and Lebanon. Dozens of Shias are being assassinated in macabre style killings all across the country. Not just that it would ignite the local sectarian wars, it would also destroy Pakistan’s relations with Iran.

3. Massive attacks on Pakistan army continue in FATA, tribal areas and in Baluchistan to keep the army bogged down in internal high intensity wars and to bleed the military’s resources to weaken it substantially so that it is not able to resist the external invasion.

4. NATO is also testing the waters and challenging the Pakistan’s defenses on the Western theatre. After the attack on Salala check post last year, NATO had stopped coming close to the Pakistan border. But now, they are aggressively intruding closer and even attacking close to the Pakistan border.

5. NATO/CIA drone strikes have become more frequent, lethal and destructive. The objective is to ignite the tribes into open rebellion against Pakistan army for being “collaborators” of the US which is killing women and children of the Pakistani tribals as massive “collateral damage”.

6. In Baluchistan, security forces are being targeted in a renewed and bloody campaign led by both TTP and the BLA. The sudden upsurge in violence and its vicious intensity is coordinated with the other axis of violence in the country. In addition to the attacks on the forces, trains, buses and energy infrastructure is also being attacked to cripple the provincial administration and critical services.

7. Chinese assets, interests and personnel in Pakistan are being targeted to disrupt the strategic relationship between Pakistan and China.

8. The panic and chaos which this urban war has created is now breaking the back of national economy and morale, throwing the entire country into fits of panic and chaos. The desperate measures being adopted by the PPP regime are only adding to the meltdown and panic.

9. Pressure is also being increased on Pakistan to declare war on the Afghan resistance and against friendly own tribes in North Waziristan. The US strategy is to deploy Pakistan to do the fighting for the NATO. As the violence touches the red hot levels in the country and the army is already over stretched, US is forcing the army leadership to open new deadlier fronts which would totally destroy not just the army but also any prospects of Pakistan having any strategic assets in the Afghan Pashtuns. The war in North Waziristan would not hurt any TTP assets which may be there as they would simply draw the army in but them melt back into Afghanistan, leaving the army to fight the local tribes and afghan resistance.

10. Massive propaganda, information war and Psy-ops have also been launched by the Indians as well as the CIA to prove that Pakistan’s nuclear assets are unsafe, the country is in a meltdown and that Pakistan is involved in spreading violence and terrorism in the neighboring countries especially against US forces in Afghanistan and India.

The war against Pakistan is now crystal clear. It has reached the last stages of deployment while the Pakistan army is well and truly surrounded but still not responding on the entire axis. Every day lost in removing this regime will be paid in massive bloodshed and destruction of the state, society and the army.

Within the government, the anarchy reigns supreme. The government and the judiciary at war with each other oblivious of the grave existential threats the nation faces. Army has remained a silent spectator of this political and judicial war and this has indeed brought the country to the brink of annihilation. Pakistan army is the last hope in this total and complete anarchy and chaos.

While the Pakistan army is indeed aware of the fatal encirclement of the state and the army, it is still reluctant to decisively intervene into the political chaos to salvage the country. The military leadership is still deliberating the crisis and has not made up their mind. In the next few weeks, they may not have the luxury of controlling the dynamics of the events, even if they want to then. Today, they can. After just a few weeks, the events would become out of control and then events would decide the destiny of the nation and the fate of its leaders.

Saddam, Qaddafi, Mubarak and now Bashar ul Asad also thought that they have infinite amount of time at their disposal. For Pakistani leaders the moment of truth just seems around the corner now.
Pakistan army is only fighting back at the military axis but have no response strategy for political chaos, economic meltdown, media war and ongoing social chaos. On the military axis, they have achieved some major success in recent days.

The following news report about the assassination of a major TTP leader in Afghanistan is a clear indication that TTP is well and truly protected in Afghanistan and their wounded are being treated in Afghan military hospitals. The news report that he has been killed in a Drone strike is non-sense as CIA does not do drones in Kunar. The militant has been eliminated by a Pak army strike after he was returning to Afghanistan from an attack inside Pakistan.

The encirclement of Pakistan is rapid and total. Now the UN is planning to send in a mission to Baluchistan to observe HR violations. Baluchistan is the prized target of the US policy towards Pakistan to cut a strategic corridor to Afghanistan bypassing the mainland. In the past also, US has been taking great interest in the internal chaos of Baluchistan to use it as a pretext to intervene. The anarchy in Baluchistan is not total also with hundreds of training camps and terrorist bases operating from Afghanistan.

Within Pakistan, the political chaos is at its peak. 27th August would be another day of infamy in Pakistan’s history as the battles between the Supreme Court and the Government threatens to bring down the state itself.
Pakistan is not too far from becoming another “Syria”. The global media war, regional encirclement, UN intervention, support to insurgencies in FATA and Baluchistan, urban war through political terrorist gangs in Karachi, psychological warfare through the paid media and direct interference into Pakistan’s social and religious circles through US AID is now tightening the grip of US and India on Pakistan’s entire social, political, economic and military fabric.

The following picture is from Syria but it may pass as from being Pakistan also. This is what happens when armies are forced to fight urban high intensity wars within own cities. This is the 4thGW, where fighting lines are not on the borders but in the major cities and towns. The soldiers are not uniformed opponents from regular armies but rag tag urban insurgents backed by regional powers. You DO NOT fight a war within your own cities or else get what the Syrians are getting now and Iraqis and Libyans tasted before them. This is what is planned for Pakistan now but the leadership and the judiciary is stone dead, deaf, dumb, blind and even collaborative to the collapse. I only wonder how the history would judge this nation which saw it coming but decided to fiddle only ??

Now even if Pak Army intervenes, the cost of recovering the nation from this anarchic state would be staggering. If the army still does not intervene, then it will be all over within the next 4 months.

Khair inshAllah. Pakistan Zindabaad.

Terrorism is certainly not a Muslim monopoly




”All Muslims may not be terrorists, but all terrorists are Muslims..” This comment, frequently heard after the Mumbai bomb blasts implies that terrorism is a Muslim specialty, if not a monopoly. The facts are very different.

First, there is nothing new about terrorism. In 1881, anarchists killed the Russian Tsar Alexander II and 21 bystanders. In 1901, anarchists killed US President McKinley as well as King Humbert I of Italy . World War I started in 1914 when anarchists killed Archduke Ferdinand of Austria . These terrorist attacks were not Muslim.
Terrorism is generally defined as the killing of civilians for political reasons. Going by this definition, the British Raj referred to Bhagat Singh, Chandrasekhar Azad and many other Indian freedom fighters as terrorists. These were Hindu and Sikh rather than Muslim.
Guerrilla fighters from Mao Zedong to Ho Chi Minh and Fidel Castro killed civilians during their revolutionary campaigns. They too were called terrorists until they triumphed. Nothing Muslim about them
In Palestine , after World War II, Jewish groups (the Haganah, Irgun and Stern Gang) fought for the creation of a Jewish state, bombing hotels and installations and killing civilians. The British, who then governed Palestine , rightly called these Jewish groups terrorists. Many of these terrorists later became leaders of independent Israel – Moshe Dayan, Yitzhak Rabin, Menachem Begin, Ariel Sharon. Ironically, these former terrorists then lambasted terrorism, applying this label only to Arabs fighting for the very same nationhood that the Jews had fought for earlier.

In Germany in 1968-92, the Baader-Meinhoff Gang killed dozens, including the head of Treuhand, the German privatization agency. In Italy , the Red Brigades kidnapped and killed Aldo Moro, former prime minister.
The Japanese Red Army was an Asian version of this. Japan was also the home of Aum Shinrikyo, a Buddhist cult that tried to kill thousands in the Tokyo metro system using nerve gas in 1995.
In Europe , the Irish Republican Army has been a Catholic terrorist organization for almost a century. Spain and France face a terrorist challenge from ETA, the Basque terrorist organization.

Africa is ravaged by so much civil war and internal strife that few people even bother to check which groups can be labeled terrorist. They stretch across the continent. Possibly the most notorious is the
Lord’s Salvation Army in Uganda , a Christian outfit that uses children as warriors. While the West amplifies the plight Muslim Darfour region in the Sudan , the Western media has rellatively ignored this Christian sponsored conflict next door in Uganda and the Eastern Congo  that has done horrendous crimes against women and children.

Tamil Tigers have long constituted one of the most vicious and formidable terrorist groups in the world. They were the first to train children as terrorists. They happen to be Hindus. Suicide bombing is widely associated with Muslim Palestinians and Iraqis, but the Tamil Tigers were the first to use this tactic on a large scale and surprisingly more suicide bombings have been associated with Tiger (400+ in 2003-2007) than all bombings in Iraq and Afghanistan combined. One such suicide bomber assassinated Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in 1991.

In India , the militants in Kashmir are Muslim. But they are only one of several militant groups. The Punjab militants, led by Bhindranwale, were Sikhs. The United Liberation Front of Assam is a Hindu terrorist group that targets Muslims rather than the other way round. Tripura has witnessed the rise and fall of several terrorist groups, and so have Bodo strongholds in Assam . Christian Mizos mounted an insurrection for decades, and Christian Nagas are still heading militant groups.

But most important of all are the Maoist terrorist groups that now exist in no less than 150 out of India ‘s 600 districts. They have attacked police stations, and killed and razed entire villages that oppose them. These are secular terrorists (like the Baader Meinhof Gang or Red Brigades). In terms of membership and area controlled, secular terrorists are far ahead of Muslim terrorists.

In sum, terrorism is certainly not a Muslim monopoly. There are or have been terrorist groups among Christians, Jews, Hindus, Sikhs, and even Buddhists. Secular terrorists (anarchists, Maoists) have been the biggest killers in India .
Why then is there such a widespread impression that most or all terrorist groups are Muslim? I see two reasons. First, the Indian elite keenly and blindly follows the western media (they are the Brown British of the British Raj today, used to eating Roti and Roast Beef and BigMacs), and the West feels under attack from Islamic groups.

Catholic Irish terrorists have killed far more people in Britain than Muslims, yet the subway bombings in London and Madrid are what Europeans remember today. The Baader Meinhof Gang, IRA and Red Brigades no longer pose much of a threat, but after 9/11 Americans and Europeans fear that they could be hit anywhere anytime. So they focus attention on Islamic militancy. They pay little notice to other forms of terrorism in Africa, Sri Lanka or India : these pose no threat to the West.
Within India , Maoists pose a far greater threat than Muslim militants in 150 districts, one-third of India ‘s area. But major cities feel threatened only by Muslim groups. So the national elite and media focus overwhelmingly on Muslim terrorism. The elite are hardly aware that this is an elite phenomenon.

The real threat to India today are the Maouist groups who are getting bigger in numbers, exponentially, now being joined also by poor Muslims youth especially in South India.

“First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they break your bones, then you win"  Mahatma Gandh

Terrorism is not a new phenomenon of the last few decades. It just has acquired a newer flavour.

It was there when man lived in caves, to the Middle Ages, to the classical Egyptian/Greek/Roman empires, to the European colonial era, to communist era, to the Nazis, to apartheid era, and today.

When we talk about terrorism it is not only by a group of individuals but also the states.

Since mankind started to live in communities it found a need to establish law and order in order to provide equity amongst the individuals sharing common resources. When this social order establishes injustices and ignores the inherent rights of others and disenfranchises the weak, then there are always a few who would take the law into their own hands without the consent of the community because the community has been rendered impotent by the greed of the most powerful.

When such disenfranchised groups get organized, both the powerful elite and the group of angry individuals have a showdown.

This is when both the parties lose their moral values of human decency on the pretext that "the end justifies the means" and this is when the innocent civilians get caught in the fight as the so called "co-lateral damage".

This carnage of the civilians in their midst continues until the injustices are addressed by the reasonable and thinking people and communities of the world.

For that reason the root of the post war resurgence in terrorism, whether one likes it or not, started and happens to be the plight of the six million Palestinians (both 15% Christians and 85% Muslims) who have been made homeless and humiliated for the last six decades or more and the unconditional support given to the state of Israel by some of the guilt ridden leadership in Europe, US and in the West, because of Europe’s Nazi past.

The fact that these "terrorists" are born in the Muslims homes is incidental because Palestine has evoked natural sympathies from Muslims youth of the world in the beginning but now has evoked the same sympathies (the Gaza Flotilla)  from the previously indifferent youth of the West too who were not only brought up in Christian homes but also in the Jewish homes too.

Remember that apartheid South Africa collapsed not only when the disenfranchised poor black communities were marching and protesting on the streets but when the youth of the world started marching with them in their own cities of the world in the seventies and eighties.

Also, more importantly, apartheid regime collapsed because the children of the white parents who supported apartheid in S Africa also started questioning their parents’ crimes against humanity such that it not only bankrupted South Africa   but also  began to tear apart their white family structure too.